Nearly five years have passed since China adopted a more flexible exchange rate regime in July 2005.
Since then the yuan has appreciated about 20 percent against the dollar.
Largely due to that, China saw large sums of international capital inflows and abundant liquidity, the "dual surpluses" of international balance of payments, as well as rising foreign exchange reserves.
Seventy percent of China's $2.5 trillion foreign exchange reserves were generated during the past five years. A one percentage point appreciation of the yuan against the dollar will attract about $5 billion in capital inflows per month, according to studies based on data between 2006 and 2009.
Again, China is facing pressure from the United States and other countries to let the yuan rise, but no one has provided persuasive evidence on the alleged undervaluation of the currency.
Goldman Sachs' model showed the yuan was undervalued by about 20 percent five years ago but it has approached a reasonable level through previous appreciation.
However, an exchange rate regime lacking flexibility and solely fixed to the dollar was not in line with the purpose of China's exchange rate regime reform.
As soon as the external clamor fades away, the reform of Chinese currency is likely to restart and the yuan may move up again in the context of China's economic growth.
Though Japan suffered a lot from a big surge in the yen in the 1980s, some still call for a one-off appreciation of the yuan. It would be very dangerous if such a view influences policymakers.
Given the high capital inflows in China, a major exchange rate move of above 10 percent will lead to a large proportion of international capital quickly flowing out to profit from the currency gain.
The move will cause unusual fluctuations in China's capital and property markets, damaging the health of China's economy.
Expectations are growing stronger for yuan appreciation and international capital inflows are likely to move faster. The currency rate should remain relatively stable for a period while a small and gradual appreciation is in line with China's industrial and economic situation.
自2005年7月中国实行了更为灵活的汇率制度至今,已经过去了将近五年。
Since then the yuan has appreciated about 20 percent against the dollar.
Largely due to that, China saw large sums of international capital inflows and abundant liquidity, the "dual surpluses" of international balance of payments, as well as rising foreign exchange reserves.
从那时起,中国人民币对美元的汇率涨了近20个百分点。
很大程度上正是这个原因,国际资本大量流入中国,而且流动性极强。中国的国际收支“双顺差”,同时外汇储备亦在增长。
Seventy percent of China's $2.5 trillion foreign exchange reserves were generated during the past five years. A one percentage point appreciation of the yuan against the dollar will attract about $5 billion in capital inflows per month, according to studies based on data between 2006 and 2009.
中国两万五千亿的外汇储备中70%的储备是在过去五年时间里积累的。2006到2009年的数据研究表明,人民币对美元汇率每上升一个百分点就会吸引将近每月50个亿的境外资本。
Again, China is facing pressure from the United States and other countries to let the yuan rise, but no one has provided persuasive evidence on the alleged undervaluation of the currency.
中国正再次面临着来自美利坚和其他国家要求人民币升值的压力。然而,尚没有人能提供人民币汇率过低的有力证据。
Goldman Sachs' model showed the yuan was undervalued by about 20 percent five years ago but it has approached a reasonable level through previous appreciation.
高盛投资公司的经济模型展示了人民币在五年前汇率水平过低了将近20个百分点,在此前的升值调整之后,目前已达到了一个合理的水平。
However, an exchange rate regime lacking flexibility and solely fixed to the dollar was not in line with the purpose of China's exchange rate regime reform.
As soon as the external clamor fades away, the reform of Chinese currency is likely to restart and the yuan may move up again in the context of China's economic growth.
然而,缺少灵活度并高度依赖于美元的汇率制度并不符合中国汇率制度改革的目的。外界的喧哗过去之后中国还是很可能重新开始货币改革,在中国经济增长的背景下,人民币将有可能再度增值。
Though Japan suffered a lot from a big surge in the yen in the 1980s, some still call for a one-off appreciation of the yuan. It would be very dangerous if such a view influences policymakers.
虽然1980年代日元汇率大幅上升给了日本惨痛的教训,但依然有人要求人民币一次性大幅升值。如果我国货币政策的制定者也受到这种想法的影响,情况会变得很危险。
Given the high capital inflows in China, a major exchange rate move of above 10 percent will lead to a large proportion of international capital quickly flowing out to profit from the currency gain.
基于中国资本流量大的现状,如果汇率大幅浮动,超过10个百分点,即会导致很大比例的国际资金为了从货币升值中获益而快速外流。
The move will cause unusual fluctuations in China's capital and property markets, damaging the health of China's economy.
这种资金外流将会导致中国房地产和资本市场的不正常波动,因此将会对中国经济的健康发展产生破坏性的影响。
Expectations are growing stronger for yuan appreciation and international capital inflows are likely to move faster. The currency rate should remain relatively stable for a period while a small and gradual appreciation is in line with China's industrial and economic situation.
外界对人民币升值的期望愈演愈烈,国际资本也可能会更快地流入中国。人民币汇率在符合中国产业和经济的现状的条件下小幅、逐步地抬升的同时,更应该在一个时期内保持相对稳定。
自那时以来,人民币兑美元已经升值约20%。
主要是由于该原因,中国看到了大笔的国际资本流入,充裕的流动性,巨额的“双顺差”的国际收支,以及增加外汇储备。
中国的2.5万亿美元外汇储备中有70%是生成于过去五年。根据基于2006至2009年数据的研究,一个百分点的人民币兑美元的升值将吸每月50亿美元的资本流入,。
并且,中国正面临着来自美国和其他国家让人民币升值的压力,但他们没有人能提供所谓货币低估的有说服力的证据。
高盛投资公司的模型显示,人民币五年前被低估了约百分之二十,但它已经通过先前的升值接近了合理水平。
然而,一个缺乏灵活性和单独固定兑美元的汇率制度与中国的汇率制度改革的目的并不一致。
一旦外部喧嚣消失,中国货币改革可能会重新启动,而人民币可能在中国经济增长的背景下两次升值。
虽然日本经历过日元在上世纪80年代大激增,有人仍旧呼吁人民币一次性升值。如果这种观点影响了决策者将是非常危险的,。
鉴于中国的高资本流入,一个主要的汇率的超过百分之十的增加将导致一大部分国际资本快速流出以从货币收益获利。
此举将导致中国的资本和房地产市场不寻常的波动,破坏了中国的经济健康。
人民币升值期望越来越强烈,而国际资本流入很可能会加速。货币汇率应在当前时期保持相对稳定,而一个小而平缓的升值才符合中国的工业和经济形势。
自那时以来,人民币已经升值约百分之兑美元20。
主要是由于对此,中国国际资本流入看到了充裕的流动性和巨额的“双顺差”的国际收支,以及增加外汇储备。
七十中国的2.5万亿美元外汇储备的过程中生成了百分之过去五年。一个百分点的人民币兑美元升值将吸引点约在每月资本流入50亿美元,根据对2006年至2009年的数据为基础的研究。
再次,中国正面临着来自美国和其他国家的压力,让人民币升值,但没有人提供了有关被指控低估的货币有说服力的证据。
高盛的模型显示,人民币被低估了约百分之二十五年以前,但它已经通过以前的升值接近合理水平。
然而,汇率制度缺乏灵活性和单独固定的美元并没有在与中国的汇率制度改革的目的一致。
一旦外部喧嚣消失,对中国汇率改革可能会重新启动和人民币可移动的中国经济增长的情况了。
虽然日本遭受了日元在上世纪80年代大激增了不少,有的还呼吁人民币一次性升值。这将是非常危险的,如果这种观点的影响决策者。
鉴于中国的高资本流入的一个主要的汇率的百分之十以上将导致国际资本的大量流出的比例迅速获利的货币收益。
此举将导致不寻常的波动,中国的资本和房地产市场破坏了中国的经济健康。
期望是越来越强大的人民币升值和国际资本流入很可能会加速。货币汇率应保持相对稳定的时期,而一个小而逐步升值符合中国的工业和经济形势是一致的。
参考资料:哈哈