对目前光伏行业若干热点问题的探讨
国外硅材料领导厂商的进展情况是目前业内较为关注的问题,数据和认识也都不太一致.目前,国外厂商在万吨级上有很多新动向，Hemlock曾经在一次会议上表示做了26000吨,另外的30000吨也在进行，所以估计， Hemlock的产能将来有可能达到60000吨以上。对于Wacker，有的数据说是18000吨，有的说是20000吨。实际上据了解它的扩展计划也是在30000吨以上。包括REC现在的规模也扩展到19500吨以上，计划也是在30000吨以上，所以这些领导厂商基本上都是在万吨级以上。
在世界主要的7家硅材料领导厂商中，有3家在未来几年可能会退出领导行列。韩国的DC Chemical目前15000吨在建，也不例外作了30000吨的规划，而且已经在实施了，所以未来也应该在30000吨以上，日本M.Setek也是在30000吨以上，目前在建的是15000吨，未来这些厂商都是在万吨级的。国外硅材料领导厂商的成本都控制在15美金到25美金之间，所以按照崔教授的报告，组件成本将低于1美金的话，就基本上能跟常规能源竞争了。
第二个与大家分享一下国外提纯冶金硅（UMG）的新进展，在同行交流的过程中，大家非常关心国外提纯冶金硅生产太阳能级硅的进展情况.相信在未来几年,采用提纯冶金硅制成的电池和薄膜电池市场份额逐渐增加,但从成本来讲,晶体硅相信在未来的很长时间都是占主导地位,能达到70%到80%.晶体硅有很多的优势,从万吨级的大规模生产来看,生产成本是15美金到25美金之间;而且晶体硅电池效率远远高于其它两种技术,目前是16%,将来可能升为18%,另外组件大规模生产的成本也相对的比较低,所以晶体硅在未来一定会长期占主导地位.
大家可能关心UMG电池,特别是现在百分之胆采用硅材料的.这个市场现在已经看到,而且LDK现有的合作伙伴中有些已经有了很好的市场但是同时也有一些劣势.在调研的80家厂家中,有三家的情况比较乐观,成长最低的一家只有6美金,其他两家基本上都是在15到20美金,从短期来看,这两家是有竞争优势,从长期来讲,这两家和大多数多晶硅厂家是差不多的,所以优势也不是很明显.唯一的一家6美金的值得关注.但在效率上,UMG和晶体硅相比基本是要低2个百分点的,另外电池以及组件的工艺成本都是大幅上升,所以从最终比较来看,UMG电池一定有它的市场.但是在未来几年替代多晶硅是不可能的,但是它可以促进多晶硅材料价格的下降.UMG的生产规模在未来2年达到2万吨的有好几家,由于它的存在,多晶硅的材料价格会慢慢降低.
第三个问题是晶体硅电池和薄膜电池的关系,这可能也是业内比较关注的问题.现在可以欣喜的看到半导体行业有很多人才进入了薄膜电池行业,太阳能行业目前是非常小的行业,所以越多的投资越多的企业越多的人才加入这个行为,对这个行业有很好的推动作用.光伏行业和半导人本行业还有其它的行业相比不是太多了,而是太少了;进来的资金不是太多了,而是太少了办公事的研发人员不是太多了,而是太少了.由于行业的逐渐壮大,光伏行业将会有更多的机会.薄膜电池从应用范围来看,和目前的晶体硅电池不太一样,包括最终的应用.薄膜电池会应用于建筑一体化以及在沙漠中建造的大型光伏电站,而无法取代晶体硅目前应用的市场,而且薄膜电池目前的效率与晶体硅相比要低很多,系统成本也要高,而且自身成本也有极限.
Foreign leader in silicon material progress of the industry is more concerned about information and knowledge are not so consistent. At present, foreign manufacturers in the 10,000-ton there are many new trends, Hemlock in a meeting so that the 26,000 tons Another 30,000 tons are under way, so it is estimated that, Hemlock capacity in the future is likely to reach more than 60,000 tons. For Wacker, and some said the data was 18,000 tons, and some said to be 20,000 tons. It is understood that in fact it is also a plan to expand in the more than 30,000 tons. REC, including the current scale was also extended to more than 19,500 tons, is also planned in more than 30,000 tons, so the leadership of these companies are basically in the more than 10,000 tons.
In 7 of the world's leading silicon leader, 3 in the next few years may withdraw from the leadership ranks. South Korea's DC Chemical is currently under construction 15,000 tons, 30,000 tons is no exception was made in the planning, and has been implemented, so in the future should be more than 30,000 tons, Japan M. Setek is also in the more than 30,000 tons, is currently under construction 15,000 tons, the future of these companies are in the 10,000-ton. Foreign leader in silicon material cost control in all 15 U.S. dollars to 25 dollars, so according to the report of Professor Cui, component costs will be less than 1 U.S. dollar, largely on conventional energy sources could compete.
The second to share with you some foreign purification of metallurgical silicon (UMG) new progress in the exchange, we are very concerned about foreign purification of metallurgical silicon solar grade silicon production progress. In the next few years, the use of metallurgical silicon purification Made of thin film batteries and battery market share increased, but the cost, crystalline silicon believe in the future for a long time are the dominant, 70% to 80%. Crystalline silicon have a lot of advantages, from 10,000 -Ton large-scale production, production costs are 15 to 25 U.S. dollars between; and efficiency of crystalline silicon cells is much higher than the other two technologies, is currently 16%, 18% in the future may be promoted to the other major components The scale of the production cost is relatively low in comparison, the silicon crystal in the future will be dominated by long-term.
We may be concerned about the battery UMG, especially at this time by using silicon material of bile. The market has seen LDK and the existing partners in some markets has been very good at the same time, but there are also some disadvantages. Research in the 80 manufacturers, there are three more optimistic about the situation, a minimum growth of 6 U.S. dollars, the other two are basically in the 15-20 U.S. dollars in the short term, the two have a competitive advantage in the long term The two manufacturers, and most of the polysilicon in a similar vein, the advantage is not obvious.'s Only 6 dollars a cause for concern. But in the efficiency, UMG and the crystalline silicon is the basic compared to 2 percentage points lower , As well as other components of the battery technology costs are rising sharply, so from a comparative point of view eventually, UMG certainly has its battery market. But in the next few years to replace polysilicon is not possible, but it can promote the polycrystalline Silicon material prices decline. UMG's production over the next 2 years to reach 20,000 tons were several, because of its existence, the polysilicon material prices will gradually reduce.
The third problem is that crystalline silicon thin film battery cell and the relationship, which may be more concerned about the industry. Can now be delighted to see the semiconductor industry there are a lot of talented people into the thin film battery industry, solar energy industry is currently very small industry, so The more investment the more business the more talented people to join the act, the industry has a very good role. Photovoltaic industry and the semiconductor industry were also compared to other industries is not too much, but too Less; money coming in rather than too much, too little, but the office is not a matter of R & D too much, but too few. As the industry grew, the photovoltaic industry will have more opportunities. Film Applications range from the battery, and the crystalline silicon cell is not the same, including the final application. Thin film batteries will be used in construction, as well as integration in the desert in the construction of large-scale photovoltaic power plants, not to replace the current application of crystalline silicon market And thin film battery current efficiency of crystalline silicon and is much lower compared to the system to high-cost, but also limit the cost of their own.
