In a seemingly simpler and less hectic time, over booked flights presented an opportunity. Frequent travelers regularly and eagly chose to give up their seats and delay their departures by a few hours in exchange for rewards such as a voucher for a free ticket.
Today, fewer people are volunteering to give up their seats for flight because there are fewer and fewer seats to be bumped to. Airlines are struggling to stay in business and look to save costs wherever possible. They are scheduling fewer flights and those flights are more crowded. Instead of delaying his or her trip by few hours, a passenger that accepts a voucher for being bumped may have to wait several days before a seat becomes available on another flight. And passengers are being bumped from flights involuntarily more often.
Airlines routinely overbook flights to compensate for the millions of no-shows that cut into expected revenue. The purpose of overbooking is not to leave passengers without seat, but to come as close as possible to filling every seat on every flight. The revenue lost from an empty seat is much greater than the costs of compensating a bumped passenger. Airlines are much closer today to filling every seat on flights than at any point in their history. The problem is, the most popular routes often sell out, so bumped passengers may be stranded for days.
The airlines do not approach overbooking haphazardly. They employ young, sharp minds with backgrounds in math and economics as analysts. The analysts use computer modeling to predict how many passengers will fail to show up for a flight. They recommend overbooking based on the numbers generated by the software.
The software used by US Airways, for example, analyzes the historical record of no-shows on flights and looks at the rate at every fare level available. The lowest-priced fares are generally nonrefundable, and passengers at those fare levels tend to carry their reservations through. Business travelers with the high-priced fares no-show more often. The software examines the fares people are booking on each upcoming flight and takes other data into account, such as the rate of no-shows on flights originating from certain geographic regions. Analysts then predict the number of no-shows on a particular flight, based on which fares passengers have booked, and overbook the flight accordingly.
Of course the analysts don’t always guess correctly. And their efforts may be hampered by a number of factors. Ticket agents report that faulty computer algorithms result in miscalculations. Changes in weather can introduce unanticipated weight restrictions. Sometimes a smaller plane is substituted for the scheduled plane. All of these for the same number of passengers, which might have been set too high already.
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今天,越来越少人自愿放弃他们的座位上的航班,因为有越来越少的座位被撞到。航空公司正在努力保持竞争力,尽可能节约成本。他们正在减少航班和那些航班安排更加拥挤。而推迟他或她的旅行,几个小时后,一名乘客被撞接受凭单,可能需要等待几天前就可以在另一航班座位。乘客被撞,更经常地从航班不由自主。
航空公司的航班去弥补常规overbook数以百万计的预订未到,切成预期收益。结合的目的不是要离开,但是没有座位乘客来尽可能满足每个座位都逃走了。失去的收入来自一个空座位远高于成本补偿一撞了乘客。今天是很接近的航空公司的航班上的座位,比任何时候,对于他们的历史。问题是,最受欢迎的路线,因此经常会被困乘客颠簸的日子。
航空公司不接近地结合。他们雇佣年轻的,强烈的思想与背景的学生在数学和经济学的分析。利用计算机模拟的分析家预测多少乘客将不能来飞行。他们推荐的基础上产生的角度将由软件。
该软件使用美国航空公司为例,分析了在航班预订的历史记录,看起来在每个费用标准。这个lowest-priced票价通常是不可归还,乘客在那些票价水平倾向于把他们的预订。商务旅行者的高价票价失约更多。该软件的票价,人们预定检查每个即将来临的飞行和以其他数据,例如率的航班的预订源自某些地区。分析家预测预订的数量就在一个特定的飞行,并在此基础上,旅客已预订,票价overbook飞行。
当然这些分析师并不总是想正确。和他们的努力可能受诸多因素的影响。机票代理商报告错误的计算机算法,导致误判。天气变化能介绍不可预料的重量限制。有时一个较小的平面代替了预定的飞机。所有的这些相同的旅客人数,这可能是集太高了。
如今，大多数人都是自愿放弃自己的座位上飞行，因为有越来越少被撞到到席位。航空公司都在努力经营下去，期待尽可能节约成本。他们安排航班，减少这些飞行更加拥挤。而不是拖延了几个小时，他或她的旅程，乘客，接受一个被撞到可能要等几天券可用座位前在另一航班。和乘客都被从飞机撞不由自主地更加频繁。
航空公司经常航班超售，以补偿没显示，预期收入将减少数百万美元。对超售的目的不是要离开座位的乘客，但来尽可能接近填充每个航班的座位。这从一个空座位的收入损失补偿是比碰到一个乘客的成本。航空公司更接近今天填补每一个比历史上任何点的航班座位。问题是，最流行的路线往往销售一空，因此可能会撞到乘客滞留了几天。
该航空公司不随意超售的做法。他们雇用年轻，有数学和经济学背景的分析师尖锐的头脑。分析家使用电脑模拟系统，预测有多少乘客将无法显示的航班了。他们建议超售的基础上由软件生成的号码。
例如，美国航空公司所使用的软件，分析了航班不显示历史记录，并在票价率看每一级提供。价格最低的票价一般是不能退还的，并在乘客的票价水平往往携带保留通过。与高价位的商务旅客票价没有出现更频繁。该软件检查票价购票每个人都即将举行的飞行，并采取其他数据考虑，如对某些地理区域的始发航班不显示率。分析家则预测在特定航班不显示号码的基础上乘客已预订票价，并超额收取相应的航班。
当然，分析家们一直猜测不正确。而他们的努力可能会受到阻碍的因素很多。票务代理报告，故障的计算机算法在计算错误的结果。在意料之外的天气变化可以引进重量限制。有时，一个较小的飞机取代了预定的飞机。这些都为相同数量的乘客，这可能已订得太高了。
