How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?
By PAUL KRUGMAN
I. MISTAKING BEAUTY FOR TRUTH
It’s hard to believe now, but not long ago economists were congratulating themselves over the success of their
field. Those successes — or so they believed — were both theoretical and practical, leading to a golden era for
the profession. On the theoretical side, they thought that they had resolved their internal disputes. Thus, in a
2008 paper titled “The State of Macro” (that is, macroeconomics, the study of big-picture issues like
recessions), Olivier Blanchard of M.I.T., now the chief economist at the International Monetary Fund,
declared that “the state of macro is good.” The battles of yesteryear, he said, were over, and there had been a
“broad convergence of vision.” And in the real world, economists believed they had things under control: the
“central problem of depression-prevention has been solved,” declared Robert Lucas of the University of
Chicago in his 2003 presidential address to the American Economic Association. In 2004, Ben Bernanke, a
former Princeton professor who is now the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, celebrated the Great
Moderation in economic performance over the previous two decades, which he attributed in part to improved
economic policy making.
By保罗KRUGMAN
I.弄错秀丽为真相艰苦It’s现在相信的，但是经济学家不久前祝贺自己在他们的的成功field. 那些成功—或他们如此相信—是理论和实用的，导致的一个黄金时代the行业。 在理论边，他们认为他们解决了他们的内部争执。 因此，在a
2008裱糊Macro”题为的“The状态(即大经济学，大图片的研究发布象
recessions)， Olivier M.I.T. Blanchard，现在国际货币基金组织的主经济师，
declared宏指令“the状态是good.”曩年争斗，他说，在和那里是vision.” “broad汇合和在现实世界，经济学家相信他们有事在控制之下： 解决了消沉预防的“central问题， ” 大学的宣称的罗伯特・卢卡斯 在他的2003总统演说的Chicago对美国经济协会。 在2004年，本Bernanke， a现在是联邦储蓄会的主席的former普林斯顿教授，庆祝伟大在经济实绩的Moderation在早先二十年期间，他归因于一部分改善
economic制定政策。
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